Week 2 stakes, market view, and why this rivalry still tilts Dallas

Nine of the last 10. That’s how many times Dallas has handled New York in this rivalry, and that context hangs over Sunday’s early window at AT&T Stadium. Both teams are 0-1, both are ticked off about how Week 1 looked, and both need a course correction fast. The Cowboys are laying 4.5 at home with a total of 44.5, and oddsmakers are effectively calling for a one-score, grind-it-out game in a climate-controlled building where weather won’t bail out either offense.

The numbers back up the setup. Dallas is -240 on the moneyline (about a 70% implied win rate), New York sits at +200, and the market’s projected score is roughly 24-19 Cowboys. The spread sits at -4.5 with extra juice (-120), a tell that books are protecting against a nudge to -5. The total has settled at 44.5 after both teams sputtered in Week 1. New York managed just 231 total yards in a 21-6 loss at Washington. Dallas moved it better (307 yards) but still fell 24-20 at Philadelphia.

History leans Dallas, and not gently. The Cowboys lead the all-time series 77-47-2 and have won eight straight against the Giants. Against the number, New York hasn’t covered a road game in six tries. These aren’t random trends—they reflect matchup issues that keep resurfacing: Dallas’s defensive speed versus New York’s protection, and a Cowboys offense that, even when it’s choppy, usually finds a rhythm against Big Blue.

AT&T Stadium adds to the tilt. With the roof closed, communication favors the home side. That’s relevant for line calls and protection rules, especially with a Giants unit still searching for timing after Week 1. Silent counts on the road are routine, but execution gets harder when the defense can pin its ears back and time the snap.

So where does that leave us? The market says Dallas by four to six, total in the mid-40s. The recent series says Cowboys, usually by a margin. The Week 1 tape says both offenses need to tighten up before we buy into an over. Put that together, and you can see why the spread and under are drawing early interest.

Line movement, matchups, and how this likely plays out

Let’s start with the number. Dallas -4.5 (-120) suggests books would rather be at -5 but are waiting for confirmation from bettors. If money keeps showing on the favorite, you’ll likely see -5 pop by Sunday morning and a split market between -4.5 (heavier juice) and -5 (standard -110). If you like Dallas, grabbing -4.5 now is cleaner than gambling on a friendlier price later.

The total at 44.5 fits the Week 1 reality for both teams. New York posted only 157 passing yards and 74 rushing yards in Washington and generated 17 first downs. Dallas moved it better (188 passing, 119 rushing, 21 first downs) but still stalled in spots. Divisional games tend to compress scoring anyway—fewer surprises, more familiarity, tighter red-zone calls. In a dome, the over usually draws curiosity, but early expert picks are leaning under because both offenses looked a step slow and both defenses can dictate terms when they win first down.

Matchup-wise, the hinge points are straightforward:

  • Protection versus pressure: New York’s protection has to hold up against a pass rush that wins with speed and slants. If the Giants live in second-and-long, their playbook shrinks and turnovers creep in.
  • Dallas’s run commitment: The Cowboys logged 119 rushing yards in Philadelphia and can tilt this game by leaning on inside zone and counters to keep the down-and-distance friendly. That also keeps their defense fresh.
  • Quarterback comfort: Dak Prescott has historically read this Giants defense well. Even without fireworks, on-time throws to the intermediate areas can keep chains moving and set up play-action shots.
  • Field position: In a game with a modest total, hidden yards on special teams matter. Short fields turn into three points more often than touchdowns, nudging the score profile toward the low-to-mid 40s.

New York’s path is narrower but clear: win early downs with efficient quick game, avoid negative plays, and steal a possession with a takeaway. Methodical drives shorten the game and keep Dallas from turning it into a possession battle the Cowboys usually win at home. If the Giants can create two explosives (20-plus yards) per half without giving one back, they’re live. If not, the math leans Cowboys.

One more factor: game state. If Dallas grabs an early lead—very possible given script stability at home—expect a heavier Cowboys run rate and a clock that bleeds. That’s great for a Dallas ticket, and it quietly props up the under because it forces New York to string together 10- to 12-play drives without mistakes. In divisional games, that’s a tough ask.

The scoreboard forecast aligns with the modeling: Cowboys by four to six, total landing around 40-45. A 24-19 or 23-17 type outcome fits the way these teams started the season and how they typically play each other in Arlington.

What about those trends saying five recent meetings went over? True, but context matters. Several of those games featured more broken plays and short fields than you’d expect. With both offenses misfiring in Week 1 and the Giants still searching for continuity, the under is more attractive this time—especially in a controlled environment that rewards defenses that tackle well and don’t bust coverages.

Monitoring the final 48 hours is smart. Offensive line inactives, any late scratches on either defensive front, or a change at play-caller duties can swing a half-point on the spread and a full point on the total. But unless something material shifts, the board favors the home side and a lid on scoring.

Best bets right now:

  • Spread: Dallas -4.5 (playable to -5). The matchup and series history justify a one-score favorite, and home field matters here.
  • Total: Under 44.5 (playable to 44). Week 1 form plus a divisional tempo edge the number down a touch.
  • Moneyline: Dallas -240 for parlay anchors only; the value is thinner straight-up, but it pairs logically with an under angle.

If you prefer a derivative approach, two ideas fit the script: first-half under if it hangs at 22.5 or better, and Cowboys alternate spread at -2.5 for those building multi-leg tickets with less variance. Live betting also sets up nicely—if Dallas jumps out 7-0 and the total inflates, an in-game under can be plus-EV given how the Cowboys tend to shorten games with a lead.

As for a score call, the predictive model showing Dallas 23.9 to New York 19.0 sounds right: Cowboys by five, comfortably within the current spread, with the total staying just under. That’s consistent with how both teams looked out of the gate and how this rivalry usually plays when it’s in Texas.

One last note on volatility: this is still September football. Cohesion improves rapidly between Weeks 1 and 3. If New York cleans up protection and mixes in tempo, they can stretch Dallas into more nickel and create lighter boxes. If Dallas tidies up red-zone sequencing, they can push this toward a 27-17 kind of day. The median outcome still points to the favorite and a lid on points, which is why the market is sitting where it is.

My card reflects that view: Dallas -4.5 and under 44.5, with a projected 24-19 finish. In a rivalry that’s been one-way traffic lately, the Cowboys’ edge in trench play and situational football should hold up at home.

Pick summary:

  • Main: Dallas -4.5
  • Total: Under 44.5
  • Projection: Dallas 24, New York 19

And yes, the search-friendly angle is simple: this is the kind of divisional game where trusting the better trench team and the quieter scoreboard makes sense. If you’ve been waiting for a spot to back the favorite without needing a blowout, Cowboys vs Giants fits the bill.